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[]
["You must sign your name in cell A12 below"]
["Exam 5: Basic Techniques for Ratemaking and Estimating Claim Liabilities"]
["Spring 2018"]
[]
["Candidates must sign below to confirm acknowledgement of the following:"]
["Candidates must not give or receive assistance of any kind during the examination.  Any cheating, any attempt to cheat, assisting others to cheat, or participating therein, or other improper conduct will result in the Casualty Actuarial Society and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries disqualifying the candidate's paper, and such other disciplinary action as may be deemed appropriate within the guidelines of the CAS Policy on Examination Discipline."]
[]
[]
[]
["Candidate Signature:"]
["(sign here)"]
[]
[]
["After your exam, please log on to the CAS website to complete the Exam Survey. The Syllabus & Examination Committee values your feedback."]

{"sheet":"Instructions","index":1,"n_rows":43,"n_cols":2,"rows_kept":43,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
["Instructions Relating to the Virtual Exam Environment"]
[1,"Once this exam begins it will be available for up to FIVE hours.  If you take a break, the exam timer will not stop."]
[2,"The exam will be auto-saved every 60 seconds.  If you wish, you can save it more often."]
[3,"Do not use \"Save As\" to save the file as a different name.  Only the original file will be graded."]
[4,"Control and Alt keyboard shortcuts may not work in the virtual environment. They have not been intentionally turned off, but these features may work differently in the virtual environment than they do normally, and functionality may vary for different types of computers. Some people have found that Ctrl-C (copy) and Ctrl-V (paste) work while Ctrl-Page Down (switch tabs) does not. In fact, for them using Ctrl-Page Down creates an unusual situation where additional tabs are grouped with the current tab until the Ctrl key is pressed again. Candidates may want to avoid using this shortcut"]
[5,"You may change keyboard layouts to use a French Canadian keyboard. Click on the \"ENG\" shown in the lower right corner of the virtual environment (not the Excel spreadsheet) and select the desired French keyboard layout."]
[6,"The French language accessory pack is available in the virtual environment. See detailed instructions below."]
[]
["Instructions Relating to the Format of the Exam within Excel"]
[7,"Each question is asked on a single sheet, with the sheet name matching the question number (e.g. Question 1 is on sheet \"1\"). The question number is also shown in cell A1 on each question sheet."]
[8,"On each question sheet, the exam question is provided in a protected grey area; while you may modify the formatting within this area, you may not change the content of the area, insert any rows/columns, or delete any rows/columns. If the content or cell range of the grey area is changed in any way, your answer to that question will NOT be graded."]
[9,"Each question sheet is protected without a password; candidates can choose to unprotect the worksheet at their own risk (see #8 above).  Within a protected sheet you have the ability to select locked and unlocked cells, format cells, and format rows and columns."]
[10,"For each question, the number of points for the full question is indicated in cell A3. The number of points for each subpart is indicated to the left in column A."]
[11,"In cell B1 of each question sheet you have the option to identify the status of your answer as \"Incomplete\", \"Finished\", or \"Review\".  Any selections made will also appear in the Point Grid sheet.  These selections are optional and solely for your benefit, and they will not be provided to the graders."]
[12,"Candidates can change the size of the Excel content by changing the zoom slider in the lower right corner of Excel. Multiple sheets can be adjusted at the same time by selecting them before zooming."]
[13,"DO NOT use \"Clear Formats\" or \"Clear All\" to remove cell contents. Doing so will lock the cell. Instead, use \"Clear Contents\" or just delete the contents of the desired cell."]
[]
["Instructions Relating to Answering Exam Questions"]
[14,"Enter answers in the white space below or to the right of the grey question box. Any cell content beyond Row 200 or Column AZ will NOT be graded."]
[15,"The answer should be concise and confined to the question as posed. When a specified number of items are requested, do not offer more items than requested.  For example, if you are requested to provide three items, only the first three responses will be graded."]
[16,"In order to receive full credit or to maximize partial credit on mathematical and computational questions, you must clearly outline your approach in either verbal or mathematical form, showing calculations where necessary.  It is not necessary to state the formula verbally if the calculation is made directly in the cell.  While Excel tools may be available to assist in calculations, candidates should ensure there is sufficient documentation of their work."]
[17,"Use of Excel functions (for example SUM, AVERAGE, SUMPRODUCT, etc.) is allowed and encouraged for efficiency but not required."]
[18,"You must clearly specify any additional assumptions you have made to answer the question."]
[19,"Only work shown on the question sheets will be graded; a copy of the sheets will be provided to the graders in Excel such that the graders can consider both the formula entered in a cell and the result of that formula. An optional \"Scratch\" sheet is available for candidates to use for side work. Any contents included on the Point Grid or the Scratch sheets will not be provided to the graders."]
[20,"DO NOT use named ranges as they may not copy over correctly to the graders."]
[21,"DO NOT use Visual Basic code.  It will not be provided to the graders."]
[22,"DO NOT use cell comments.  Content in cell comments will not be graded."]
[23,"DO NOT include links to other sheets; linked values in candidate answers will not carry over correctly to the grading files."]
[24,"Cell contents do not need to be printer-friendly. Text within a cell can extend beyond what can be seen on the screen. "]
[]
["Instructions Relating to Using the French Language Accessory Pack"]
["To use the French Language options:"]
[null,"Click on \"File\""]
[null,"Click on \"Options\" from the left menu to access the \"Excel Options\" screen"]
[null,"Click \"Language\" from the left menu"]
[null,"Select the changes needed (see Options below)"]
[null,"Click OK"]
[null,"You will be directed to restart Office. Close the Excel file and reopen it. If the exam timer is in the way to close the file, you can move the exam timer by clicking on it and dragging it to the side."]
[null,"The modifications will take effect in the reopened file."]
["Options:"]
[null,"* To see the French version of Excel, select French under \"Display Language\" and click the \"Set as Default\" button below the selection box."]
[null,"* To see the French version of Help, select French under \"Help Language\" and click the \"Set as Default\" button below the selection box."]
[null,"* To answer questions in French, you must have contacted the CAS to request translation services or your French text will not be graded. With such authorization, you can change the Editing Language by selecting French under \"Editing Language\" and clicking the \"Set as Default\" button to the right of the selection box."]

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["This tab will NOT be graded."]

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[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
["Total",55.5]

{"sheet":"1","index":4,"n_rows":21,"n_cols":2,"rows_kept":21,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[1,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[1.5]
[null,"Given the following for an insurance company:"]
[]
[null,"•    The exposure base is number of occupants in the home per year. "]
[null,"•    The company writes a one-year homeowners policy effective April 1, 2017 for a home with four occupants. "]
[null,"•    On October 1, 2017, two occupants leave the home, and the home has only two occupants for the remainder"]
[null,"     of the policy term."]
[]
[0.25,"a. "]
[null," Calculate the total written exposures for calendar year 2017.  "]
[]
[0.25,"b."]
[null,"Calculate the total earned exposures for calendar year 2017."]
[]
[0.25,"c."]
[null,"Calculate the total policy year 2017 written exposures evaluated as of September 30, 2017."]
[]
[0.75,"d. "]
[null,"Briefly evaluate the number of occupants based on the three criteria of an exposure base."]

{"sheet":"2","index":5,"n_rows":23,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":23,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[5,1,5,2],[14,1,14,2]]}
[2,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[1.25]
[null,"Given the following information:"]
[]
[null,"Current Rate Review"]
[null,"Number of Observations",100]
[null,"Indicated Average Premium before credibility",750]
[null,"Expected Value of Process Variance",7.5]
[null,"Variance of Hypothetical Means",0.45]
[null,"Annual Loss Trend",0.03]
[null,"Target Effective Date","July 1, 2018"]
[null,"Current Average Premium at Present Rates",600]
[]
[null,"Prior Rate Review"]
[null,"Indicated Rate Change",0.2]
[null,"Implemented Rate Change",0.09]
[null,"Effective Date of Indication","July 1, 2016"]
[null,"Actual Effective Date","September 1, 2016"]
[]
[null,"•    The complement of credibility is trended present rates."]
[]
[null,"Calculate the credibility-weighted indicated premium using Buhlmann credibility."]

{"sheet":"3","index":6,"n_rows":13,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":13,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[3,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[1.5]
[null,"An insurance company expanded its product offering into a new state last year."]
[]
[1,"a. "]
[null,"Briefly discuss an advantage and disadvantage of using the following data to determine"]
[null,"loss trend for this state:"]
[null,"i.","Competitor filings"]
[null,"ii.","Internal company data"]
[]
[0.5,"b."]
[null,"Explain the loss development and trending overlap fallacy."]

{"sheet":"4","index":7,"n_rows":24,"n_cols":8,"rows_kept":24,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[6,2,6,4],[6,5,6,7]]}
[4,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[1.75]
[null,"An actuary uses classical credibility to develop full credibility standards for a private passenger auto indication."]
[null,"Given the following information for State A:"]
[]
[null,null,"Exposures",null,null,"Claim Counts"]
[null,"Coverage",2015,2016,2017,2015,2016,2017]
[null,"Bodily Injury",20000,24000,22000,1020,1100,950]
[null,"Collision",18000,21000,19000,1700,2100,1975]
[]
[null,1082,"Claim counts standard for full credibility"]
[]
[0.5,"a. "]
[null,"Calculate the number of exposures needed for full credibility for each coverage."]
[]
[0.25,"b."]
[null,"Briefly explain why an actuary may prefer using an exposure standard for full credibility over a claim standard."]
[]
[0.5,"c."]
[null,"Briefly describe one advantage and one disadvantage of using classical credibility."]
[]
[0.5,"d."]
[null,"Propose a complement of credibility for the indication analysis and briefly evaluate the proposed complement."]

{"sheet":"5","index":8,"n_rows":29,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":29,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[5,3,5,8],[6,3,6,4],[6,5,6,6],[6,7,6,8]]}
[5,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2]
[null,"Given the following loss data for a property insurer:"]
[]
[null,null,null,"Loss Peril"]
[null,null,null,"Fire",null,"Flood",null,"Other"]
[null,"Accident Year","Sizes of loss","Claim Counts","Ground-Up Losses ($)","Claim Counts","Ground-Up Losses ($)","Claim Counts","Ground-Up Losses ($)"]
[null,2014,"0-$500,000",800,80000000,50,2500000,1500,15000000]
[null,null,"> $500,000",20,12000000,30,16500000]
[null,2015,"0-$500,000",780,81900000,null,null,1450,15225000]
[null,null,"> $500,000",10,6300000,null,null,5,4020000]
[null,2016,"0-$500,000",750,82687500,null,null,1550,17088750]
[null,null,"> $500,000",25,13891500]
[]
[null,500000,"Excess loss threshold used by the insurer for individual reported losses"]
[]
[null,"The insurer's claims information relating to all major events that occurred in the past 3 years are:"]
[null,"•    The definition of catastrophe losses is $25 million in losses across the industry."]
[null,"•    All flood claims were caused by a single flood event that occurred in 2014, causing $500 million direct insured losses in the industry."]
[null,"•    In 2016, one fire claim occurred for the insurer as the result of a forest fire, causing $25 million direct insured losses in the industry."]
[null,"•    Ground-up loss of this fire claim is $1,000,000."]
[null,"•    There is no further development on losses."]
[]
[1.5,"a."]
[null,"Calculate the excess loss factor."]
[]
[0.5,"b."]
[null,"Describe one reason to use an excess loss factor when setting property insurance rates."]

{"sheet":"6","index":9,"n_rows":42,"n_cols":8,"rows_kept":42,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[5,2,5,7]]}
[6,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[1.75]
[null,"Given the following information for a medical association:"]
[]
[null,"Accident","Cumulative Reported Claim Counts Evaluated as of Month:"]
[null,"Year",12,24,36,48,60,72]
[null,2010,26,52,71,80,85,89]
[null,2011,37,54,70,82,84,85]
[null,2012,44,81,85,100,110,112]
[null,2013,19,44,59,67,70]
[null,2014,15,44,72,83]
[null,2015,38,59,77]
[null,2016,33,65]
[null,2017,30]
[]
[null,"Claims-Made Year","Step Factor"]
[null,"First",0.3]
[null,"Second",0.6]
[null,"Third",0.8]
[null,"Fourth ",0.9]
[null,"Fifth",0.95]
[null,"Six and more",1]
[]
[null,"•    The medical association had claims-made policy coverages up until December 31, 2014. "]
[null,"•    The claims-made policies have a retroactive date of January 1, 2010."]
[null,"•    The medical association switches to occurrence policies on January 1, 2015."]
[null,"•    All policies are annual."]
[null,"•    All policies incept January 1."]
[]
[0.25,"a."]
[null,"Calculate the total reported claim counts covered under claims-made policies."]
[]
[0.25,"b."]
[null,"Calculate the total reported claim counts covered under occurrence policies."]
[]
[1,"c."]
[null,"Briefly describe the coverage gap and calculate the estimated number of ultimate claims falling in the"]
[null,"gap for the medical association."]
[]
[0.25,"d."]
[null,"Briefly describe a solution for the medical association to address the coverage gap in part c. above."]

{"sheet":"7","index":10,"n_rows":20,"n_cols":4,"rows_kept":20,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[7,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[1.75]
[null,"Given the following information:"]
[]
[null,"Underwriting profit provision",0.05]
[]
[null,null,"Expenses ($000)","% Fixed"]
[null,"Countrywide General Expenses",3648,0.75]
[null,"Countrywide Other Acquisition Expenses",4368,0.75]
[null,"State Tax, Licenses & Fees",315,0.25]
[null,"State Commission & Brokerage",1868,0]
[]
[null,null,"Countrywide","State"]
[null,"Earned Premium ($000)",80948,18036]
[null,"Written Premium ($000)",82583,18498]
[null,"Earned Exposures",84115,19712]
[null,"Written Exposures",87476,20217]
[]
[null,"Calculate the fixed expense fee per exposure."]

{"sheet":"8","index":11,"n_rows":38,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":38,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[8,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[6.5]
[null,"Given the following information as of December 31, 2017:"]
[]
[null,"Cumulative Reported Loss + ALAE ($000s) as of (months)"]
[null,"Accident Year",12,24,36]
[null,2015,1000,1167.5,1250]
[null,2016,1100,1285]
[null,2017,1050]
[]
[null,"Calendar Year","Earned Premium ($000s)"]
[null,2015,1900]
[null,2016,2085]
[null,2017,2100]
[]
[null,0.02,"Annual loss and ALAE trend"]
[null,0.03,"Annual premium trend"]
[null,0.1,"Fixed Expense Ratio"]
[null,0.3,"Variable Expense Ratio"]
[null,0.05,"Profit and Contingencies Provision"]
[null,7.0000000000000007E-2,"ULAE Provision (as % of Loss and ALAE)"]
[null,0.04,"Rate change effective July 1, 2016 (only rate change in the past three years)"]
[]
[null,1.0669999999999999,"36 to ultimate reported claim development factor"]
[]
[null,"•    All policies are annual."]
[null,"•    Exposures are written evenly throughout each calendar year."]
[null,"•    Rates will be in effect for one year."]
[null,"•    The historical experience is fully credible."]
[]
[4.25,"a."]
[null,"Calculate the ultimate losses and ALAE for each accident year using the Cape Cod technique"]
[null,"incorporating rate change and trend."]
[]
[2.25,"b."]
[null,"Calculate the indicated rate change for policies effective January 1, 2019 using the latest three accident"]
[null,"years of experience."]

{"sheet":"9","index":12,"n_rows":26,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":26,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[9,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[1.75]
[null,"Given the following information for two personal automobile policies:"]
[]
[null,"Three-Year Time Horizon for 21 Year-old Driver"]
[null,"Year","Age","Premium ($)","Loss ($)","Expense ($)","Renewal Probability"]
[null,1,21,1215,1200,50]
[null,2,22,1200,1125,20,0.75]
[null,3,23,1185,1050,20,0.75]
[null,"Total",null,3600,3375,90]
[]
[null,"Three-Year Time Horizon for 65 Year-old Driver"]
[null,"Year","Age","Premium ($)","Loss ($)","Expense ($)","Renewal Probability"]
[null,1,65,900,795,50]
[null,2,66,900,839,20,0.95]
[null,3,67,900,859,20,0.95]
[null,"Total",null,2700,2493,90]
[]
[null,0.05,"Annual discount rate"]
[]
[null,"•    Policies are written on January 1."]
[null,"•    Premium is collected and the expense and losses are incurred on January 1."]
[]
[null,"Evaluate whether the 21 year-old or 65 year-old has a larger percentage return"]
[null,"on premium over the three-year horizon."]

{"sheet":"10","index":13,"n_rows":11,"n_cols":2,"rows_kept":11,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[10,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2]
[null,"A company is considering whether to use vehicle color as a private passenger"]
[null,"auto rating variable for bodily injury coverage. "]
[]
[1,"a."]
[null,"Evaluate the use of vehicle color as a rating variable using two operational criteria."]
[]
[1,"b."]
[null,"Evaluate the use of vehicle color as a rating variable using two social criteria."]

{"sheet":"11","index":14,"n_rows":23,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":23,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[5,3,6,4],[5,5,6,6]]}
[11,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[1.5]
[null,"Given the following information:"]
[]
[null,null,"True","Company A",null,"Company B"]
[null,null,"Expected"]
[null,"Risk","Cost","Insured Risks","Charged Rate","Insured Risks","Charged Rate"]
[null,"High",170,5000,160,5000,150]
[null,"Low",130,5000,140,5000,150]
[null,"Total",150,10000,150,10000,150]
[]
[null,"•    There are no underwriting expenses or profit provisions."]
[null,"•    Market consists of 10,000 high risk insureds and 10,000 low risk insureds."]
[null,"•    Both companies write only one line of business."]
[null,"•    20% of all insureds shop at renewal and base their purchasing decision on price."]
[]
[1,"a. "]
[null,"Calculate the profitability for each company after one renewal cycle."]
[]
[0.5,"b."]
[null,"Briefly describe two possible actions for the company experiencing adverse selection to"]
[null,"reduce the risk of insolvency."]

{"sheet":"12","index":15,"n_rows":25,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":25,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[12,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2.5]
[null,"Given the following information for an insurance company:"]
[]
[null,null,"Earned","Reported Loss","Number of","Current","True"]
[null,"Class","Exposures","and ALAE","Claims","Relativity","Relativity"]
[null,"A",15271,864000,924,1,1]
[null,"B",7250,732000,623,1.1000000000000001,1.7254552312793729]
[null,"C",10532,505000,185,1.8,0.72124196877543467]
[]
[null,18000,"Full credibility standard for number of earned exposures"]
[]
[null,"•    Partial credibility is determined based on the square root rule."]
[null,"•    Complement of credibility is equal to normalized current class relativities."]
[null,"•    Class A remains the base class."]
[]
[2,"a. "]
[null,"Calculate the indicated rate change for each class to achieve a revenue-neutral overall change."]
[]
[0.25,"b."]
[null,"Briefly describe one possible reason why the indicated relativities do not match the true relativities."]
[null," "]
[0.25,"c."]
[null,"Briefly explain an adjustment to the univariate pure premium method to improve its result."]

{"sheet":"13","index":16,"n_rows":39,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":39,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[13,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2]
[null,"A company is implementing population density in its rating plan for a line of business. The company has three pieces of information."]
[null,"•    An analysis the company performed using a generalized linear model (GLM) on internal data only."]
[null,"•    The rating factors from a competitor's rate filing."]
[null,"•    The rating factors from an external industry benchmark."]
[]
[null,"Population Density","Internal GLM","Competitor","Industry"]
[null,"Low",1.5,0.9,0.4]
[null,"Medium",1,1,1]
[null,"High",1.3,1.1000000000000001,1.6]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[]
[null,"Provide a recommendation for the low and high level rating factors given the chart above and the external rating factors."]
[null,"Justify the recommendations considering:"]
[null,"i. GLM diagnostics"]
[null,"ii. Competitor"]
[null,"iii. Industry benchmark"]

{"sheet":"14","index":17,"n_rows":17,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":17,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[14,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[1.5]
[null,"Given the following information about a home:"]
[]
[null,250000,"Home value"]
[null,200000,"Insured value"]
[null,0.9,"Coinsurance requirement"]
[]
[1,"a. "]
[null,"Calculate the coinsurance penalty for the following loss amounts:"]
[null,"i.",50000]
[null,"ii.",220000]
[null,"iii.",250000]
[]
[0.5,"b."]
[null,"Briefly describe two problems with underinsurance. "]

{"sheet":"15","index":18,"n_rows":32,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":32,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[15,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2.75]
[null,"Given the following for a workers compensation policyholder:"]
[]
[null,"Policy Year","Actual Primary Losses ($)","Actual Excess Losses ($)","Payroll ($)"]
[null,2015,10000,120000,2000000]
[null,2016,10000,80000,2100000]
[null,2017,10000,60000,2205000]
[null,"Total",30000,260000,6305000]
[]
[null,3.25,"Expected loss rate per $100 of payroll"]
[null,0.2,"D-Ratio"]
[null,40000,"Ballast value"]
[null,0.3,"Weighting value"]
[null,0.7,"Minimum retrospective premium ratio"]
[null,1.3,"Maximum retrospective premium ratio"]
[null,1.1000000000000001,"Loss conversion factor"]
[null,100000,"Per accident loss limitation"]
[null,0.25,"Expense allowance (excludes tax multiplier)"]
[null,0.7,"Expected loss ratio"]
[null,1.05,"Tax multiplier"]
[null,800000,"Standard premium"]
[null,0.4,"Insurance charge for maximum premium"]
[null,0.05,"Insurance savings for minimum premium"]
[null,200000,"Limited reported losses"]
[]
[1.25,"a."]
[null,"Calculate the experience rating modification factor."]
[]
[1.5,"b."]
[null,"Calculate the retrospective premium."]

{"sheet":"16","index":19,"n_rows":28,"n_cols":6,"rows_kept":28,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[14,1,15,1],[14,2,15,2],[6,1,7,1],[6,2,7,2],[8,1,10,1],[8,2,10,2],[11,1,13,1],[11,2,13,2]]}
[16,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[1.5]
[null,"Given the following transactional data:"]
[]
[null,"Claim ID","Accident Date","Transaction Date","Amount Paid on Transaction Date","Ending Case Outstanding"]
[null,"A","2014-10-31","2015-02-01",200,300]
[null,null,null,"2015-07-31",300,0]
[null,"B","2015-04-28","2015-07-01",0,1000]
[null,null,null,"2015-10-15",500,500]
[null,null,null,"2016-08-28",500,200]
[null,"C","2015-06-01","2015-07-07",100,650]
[null,null,null,"2016-01-15",250,400]
[null,null,null,"2017-05-15",300,0]
[null,"D","2015-09-24","2016-03-01",0,325]
[null,null,null,"2017-12-19",375,250]
[]
[0.75,"a. "]
[null,"Calculate accident year 2015 paid claims as of:"]
[null,"i. 12 months"]
[null,"ii. 24 months"]
[null,"iii. 36 months"]
[]
[0.75,"b."]
[null,"Calculate accident year 2015 reported claims as of:"]
[null,"i. 12 months"]
[null,"ii. 24 months"]
[null,"iii. 36 months"]

{"sheet":"17","index":20,"n_rows":30,"n_cols":7,"rows_kept":30,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[17,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2]
[null,"Given the following:"]
[]
[null,"Accident","Cumulative Reported Claims ($000) as of (months)"]
[null,"Year",12,24,36,48,60]
[null,2013,4850,6060,6670,7000,7000]
[null,2014,5800,7270,8000,8400]
[null,2015,7600,9500,10500]
[null,2016,9350,11700]
[null,2017,11800]
[]
[null,"Calendar \nYear","Earned Premium ($000)"]
[null,2013,10000]
[null,2014,12000]
[null,2015,15000]
[null,2016,18000]
[null,2017,22000]
[]
[null,"•    There have been no rate changes."]
[null,"•    There is no development beyond 48 months."]
[]
[1.5,"a. "]
[null,"Calculate ultimate claim ratios for each accident year using the reported "]
[null,"Bornheutter-Ferguson technique with a 70% expected claims ratio."]
[]
[0.5,"b."]
[null,"Evaluate the appropriateness of using the reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson"]
[null,"technique as applied in part a. above."]

{"sheet":"18","index":21,"n_rows":26,"n_cols":12,"rows_kept":26,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[18,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2.5]
[null,"Given the following data as of December 31, 2017:"]
[]
[null,"Accident","Cumulative Reported Claims ($000s) as of (months)",null,null,null,null,"Accident","Cumulative Reported Claim Counts as of (months)"]
[null,"Year",12,24,36,48,null,"Year",12,24,36,48]
[null,2014,3002,3585,3857,4020,null,2014,940,975,980,980]
[null,2015,3440,4107,4522,null,null,2015,1060,1103,1106]
[null,2016,3427,4109,null,null,null,2016,1053,1095]
[null,2017,"Not Provided",null,null,null,null,2017,1085]
[]
[]
[null,"Accident","Reported Claims Age-to-Age Factors",null,null,null,null,"Accident","Reported Claim Count Age-to-Age Factors"]
[null,"Year","12-24","24-36","36-48",null,null,"Year","12-24","24-36","36-48"]
[null,2014,1.1942038640906063,1.0758716875871688,1.0422608244749805,null,null,2014,1.0372340425531914,1.0051282051282051,1]
[null,2015,1.1938953488372093,1.1010469929388849,null,null,null,2015,1.040566037735849,1.0027198549410699]
[null,2016,1.1990078786110301,null,null,null,null,2016,1.0398860398860399]
[]
[null,0.05,"Claim severity trend"]
[null,0.3,"Claim severity reduction due to tort reform on claims occuring on or after January 1, 2017"]
[]
[null,"•    The tort reform has no effect on claim reporting."]
[null,"•    There is no claim development after 48 months."]
[]
[null,"Estimate ultimate claims for accident year 2017 using a frequency-severity technique."]

{"sheet":"19","index":22,"n_rows":17,"n_cols":2,"rows_kept":17,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[19,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2]
[null,"Briefly evaluate the appropriateness of the paid development technique and the"]
[null,"reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson technique in the following scenarios:"]
[]
[0.5,"a. "]
[null,"The company pays a large shock loss early in the life of the accident year."]
[]
[0.5,"b."]
[null,"The company has difficulty compiling an accurate history of rate changes."]
[]
[0.5,"c."]
[null,"The company begins to settle claims earlier."]
[]
[0.5,"d."]
[null,"Severity trend is higher than expected."]

{"sheet":"20","index":23,"n_rows":13,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":13,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[20,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[1.25]
[null,"After operating in a steady-state environment for multiple years, an insurer decides to"]
[null,"increase the strength of outstanding case reserves in 2017."]
[]
[1,"a. "]
[null,"Explain how this change will impact the following techniques if no adjustments are made."]
[null,"i.","Reported claim development technique"]
[null,"ii.","Case outstanding development technique"]
[]
[0.25,"b."]
[null,"Identify a technique that is not impacted by this change."]

{"sheet":"21","index":24,"n_rows":48,"n_cols":12,"rows_kept":48,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[21,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2.5]
[null,"Given the following information:"]
[]
[null,"Accident","Cumulative Paid Loss + ALAE ($) as of (months)",null,null,null,null,"Accident","Average Case Outstanding ($) as of (months)"]
[null,"Year",12,24,36,48,null,"Year",12,24,36,48]
[null,2013,150000,450000,550000,620000,null,2013,300,320,290,310]
[null,2014,170000,480000,560000,590000,null,2014,320,310,350,200]
[null,2015,160000,470000,510000,null,null,2015,310,400,250]
[null,2016,180000,270000,null,null,null,2016,450,190]
[null,2017,90000,null,null,null,null,2017,120]
[]
[null,"Accident","Open Claim Counts as of (months)",null,null,null,null,"Accident","Cumulative Closed Claim Counts as of (months)"]
[null,"Year",12,24,36,48,null,"Year",12,24,36,48]
[null,2013,193.59999999999991,210.39999999999986,142,44,null,2013,1006.4000000000001,1139.6000000000001,1258,1406]
[null,2014,237.99999999999989,225,145,110,null,2014,1020.0000000000001,1155,1275,1350]
[null,2015,222.69999999999982,207.29999999999995,192,null,null,2015,1026.8000000000002,1162.7,1208]
[null,2016,259.59999999999991,263.70000000000005,null,null,null,2016,1040.4000000000001,1086.3]
[null,2017,810,null,null,null,null,2017,540]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Ultimate"]
[null,"Accident","Cumulative Reported Claim Counts as of (months)",null,null,null,null,"Accident","Claim"]
[null,"Year",12,24,36,48,null,"Year","Counts"]
[null,2013,1200,1350,1400,1450,null,2013,1480]
[null,2014,1258,1380,1420,1460,null,2014,1500]
[null,2015,1249.5,1370,1400,null,null,2015,1510]
[null,2016,1300,1350,null,null,null,2016,1530]
[null,2017,1350,null,null,null,null,2017,1600]
[]
[null,null,"Berquist-Sherman Adjusted"]
[null,"Accident","Cumulative Paid Claims ($)"]
[null,"Year",12,24,36,48]
[null,2013,150000,450000,550000,620000]
[null,2014,170000,480000,560000,623643.76063216012]
[null,2015,160000,470000,557892.23979152669]
[null,2016,180000,577918.81729201949]
[null,2017,162049.30225147915]
[]
[null,0.12,"Annual severity trend"]
[null,1.2,"Adjusted paid 48-Ultimate development factor"]
[]
[null,"•    In 2016, the company undertook an effort to significantly increase the strength of their case reserves."]
[null,"•    In 2017, the company experienced significant turnover in their claims department resulting in extreme distortions to case reserve and payment patterns."]
[null,"•    As of the end of 2017 the staffing levels have returned to normal."]
[]
[null,"Calculate an appropriate estimate of the ultimate loss & ALAE for accident year 2017 using Berquist-Sherman adjustments with the calendar year 2016"]
[null,"diagonal as the basis for adjusting."]

{"sheet":"22","index":25,"n_rows":38,"n_cols":6,"rows_kept":38,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[22,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2.5]
[null,"Given the following information as of December 31, 2017:"]
[]
[null,null,"Cumulative Reported Claims Gross of Reinsurance"]
[null,"Accident","($000) as of (months)"]
[null,"Year",12,24,36,48]
[null,2014,200,400,600,720]
[null,2015,240,480,720]
[null,2016,300,600]
[null,2017,350]
[]
[null,1.1000000000000001,"48-ultimate reported claim development factor"]
[null,0.2,"Percentage ceded by the company under a quota share treaty for each accident year"]
[]
[null,null,"Stop Loss"]
[null,"Accident","Attachment"]
[null,"Year","Point ($000)"]
[null,2014,700]
[null,2015,750]
[null,2016,900]
[null,2017,1000]
[]
[null,"•    The aggregate stop loss treaty is applied after the quota share for each year."]
[null,"•    The stop loss treaty covers all losses above the attachment point."]
[]
[1.25,"a. "]
[null,"Estimate the ultimate claims net of all reinsurance for accident years 2014 through 2017 using"]
[null,"the development technique."]
[]
[0.75,"b."]
[null,"Calculate the ceded IBNR for accident year 2017."]
[]
[0.5,"c."]
[null,"Briefly describe the relationship between gross and net tail factors for each of the following reinsurance arrangements:"]
[null,null,"i. Stop Loss"]
[null,null,"ii. Quota Share"]

{"sheet":"23","index":26,"n_rows":27,"n_cols":5,"rows_kept":27,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[23,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2.75]
[null,"Given the following information as of December 31, 2017:"]
[]
[null,"Calendar","Paid","Paid","Incurred"]
[null,"Year","ULAE ($)","Claims ($)","Claims ($)"]
[null,2014,25000,62500,250000]
[null,2015,50000,250000,500000]
[null,2016,75000,500000,750000]
[null,2017,90000,600000,900000]
[]
[null,"Accident Year 2017"]
[null,150000,"Case outstanding"]
[null,100000,"Total IBNR"]
[null,0.6,"Percent of total IBNR attributed to future case development on known claims"]
[]
[1.25,"a."]
[null,"Estimate unpaid ULAE for accident year 2017 using the classical technique where 100% of the paid to paid ratio is"]
[null,"applied only to the claims incurred but not yet reported (IBNYR). Briefly justify the selected ULAE ratio."]
[]
[1,"b."]
[null,"Estimate unpaid ULAE for accident year 2017 using the Kittel refinement where 100% of the paid to paid ratio is"]
[null,"applied only to the IBNYR."]
[]
[0.5,"c."]
[null,"Identify a scenario that distorts the classical technique and briefly explain how it is addressed by the Kittel refinement."]

{"sheet":"24","index":27,"n_rows":26,"n_cols":9,"rows_kept":26,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[24,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2.25]
[null,"Given the following information:"]
[]
[null,null,"Selected"]
[null,null,"Ultimate Claims","Reported Claims","Reported Claims"]
[null,"Accident","as of","as of","as of"]
[null,"Year","2017-06-30","2017-06-30","2017-12-31"]
[null,2014,3220,3126,3088]
[null,2015,4229,3248,3796]
[null,2016,4845,2018,2900]
[null,2017,5101,697,1565]
[]
[null,"Selected Reported Claims Age-to-Age Factors"]
[null,"6-12","12-18","18-24","24-30","30-36","36-42","42-48","48-Ult"]
[null,1.87,1.63,1.43,1.29,1.17,1.08,1.03,1.0049999999999999]
[]
[1.25,"a."]
[null,"Compare the actual versus expected claims reported between June 30, 2017 and December 31, 2017 for each accident year."]
[]
[0.5,"b."]
[null,"Briefly describe two scenarios that would result in reported claims emerging lower than expected."]
[]
[0.5,"c."]
[null,"Briefly describe two scenarios that would result in reported claims emerging higher than expected."]

{"sheet":"25","index":28,"n_rows":39,"n_cols":12,"rows_kept":39,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[25,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2.25]
[null,"Given the following information as of December 31, 2017:"]
[]
[null,"Accident","Cumulative Paid ALAE ($000) as of (months)",null,null,null,null,"Accident","Cumulative Paid Claims ($000) as of (months)"]
[null,"Year",12,24,36,48,null,"Year",12,24,36,48]
[null,2014,320,1920,3840,4224,null,2014,8000,24000,38400,42240]
[null,2015,280,1680,3360,null,null,2015,7000,21000,33600]
[null,2016,330,1980,null,null,null,2016,8250,24750]
[null,2017,340,null,null,null,null,2017,4250]
[]
[null,"Accident","Ratio of Paid ALAE-to-Paid Claims as of (months)"]
[null,"Year",12,24,36,48]
[null,2014,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1]
[null,2015,0.04,0.08,0.1]
[null,2016,0.04,0.08]
[null,2017,0.08]
[]
[null,null,"Reported Claim"]
[null,null,"Development","Selected"]
[null,null,"Technique","Ultimate","Selected"]
[null,"Accident","Ultimate Claims","Claims","Ultimate"]
[null,"Year","($000)","($000)","Claim Count"]
[null,2014,42240,42240,3600]
[null,2015,36960,36960,3000]
[null,2016,43560,43560,3400]
[null,2017,35000,66440,3500]
[]
[null,"•    There is no development beyond 48 months."]
[]
[0.75,"a."]
[null,"Estimate ultimate ALAE for accident year 2017 using the paid ALAE development technique."]
[]
[1,"b."]
[null,"Estimate ultimate ALAE for all accident years using the paid ALAE-to-paid claims only development technique with additive factors."]
[]
[0.5,"c."]
[null,"Recommend and briefly justify an estimate of ultimate ALAE for accident year 2017 from the results of parts a. and b. above."]

{"sheet":"26","index":29,"n_rows":28,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":28,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[]}
[26,"Incomplete"]
["Points"]
[2]
[null,"The following table summarizes the results of various claim projection techniques"]
[null,"as of December 31, 2017 in total for all accident years:"]
[]
[null,"Projection Technique","Ultimate Claims Estimate"]
[null,"Reported Development",6500]
[null,"Paid Development",4800]
[null,"Expected Claims",4900]
[null,"Reported Bornhuetter-Ferguson",6100]
[null,"Paid Bornhuetter-Ferguson",4850]
[null,"Reported Berquist-Sherman",4900]
[null,"Paid Berquist-Sherman",4850]
[]
[null,"•    There are no large losses."]
[]
[0.5,"a."]
[null,"Describe how an operational change could be causing the variation in the"]
[null,"ultimate claims estimates."]
[]
[1,"b."]
[null,"Identify and briefly describe how two diagnostics could indicate the presence "]
[null,"of the operational change identified in part a. above."]
[]
[0.5,"c."]
[null,"Identify and briefly describe a diagnostic that highlights the similarity between"]
[null,"the paid development technique and paid Berquist-Sherman technique estimates."]