Friedland15.Evaluation

Reading: Friedland, J.F., Estimating Unpaid Claims Using Basic Techniques, Casualty Actuarial Society, Third Version, July 2010. The Appendices are excluded.

Chapter 15: Evaluation of Methods

Study Tips

This is a really great chapter because it ties together concepts from all previous chapters. The only thing that's totally new is a formula for calculating expected emergence. There are 2 versions and they are both pretty easy:

• expected emergence of reported losses
• expected emergence of paid losses

Most of the exam questions from this chapter ask you to do one or more of the following:

• evaluate the accuracy of an estimate from a given reserving method
• identify a scenario that could changes in estimates for a given reserving method between successive evaluation dates
• identify a scenario that causes differences in estimates between 2 different reserving methods
• suggest an adjustment or alternate method to improve accuracy of estimates

It's a heavily tested chapter and is an excellent way to review concepts related the reserving methods from previous chapters.

Estimated study time: several days (not including subsequent review time)

BattleTable

Based on past exams, the main things you need to know (in rough order of importance) are:

• fact A...
• fact B...

reference	part (a)	part (b)	part (c)	part (d)
E (2019.Fall #25)	emergence: - of losses	unpaid estimate: - recommendation
E (2018.Spring #24)
E (2018.Spring #26)
E (2017.Fall #27)	assess method: - paid & rptd devlpt	assess method: - Freq-Sev, rptd BF	assess method: - paid devlpt, paid BF
E (2017.Fall #28)	assess CDFs: - devlpt, BF, Freq-Sev	assess ECR: - BF method
E (2017.Spring #21)	identify scenario: - consistent with results	identify scenario: - explains difference	alternate method: - for part (a)	alternate method: - for part (b)
E (2017.Spring #26)	assess ECR: - BF method	method comparison: to Benktander	investigating results: - questions for mgmt 1
E (2016.Fall #16)	Friedland05.Triangles	Friedland05.Triangles	Friedland06.Diagnostics	select method: - settlement rate change
E (2016.Fall #18)	BF ECR: - calculate	unpaid: - 2 methods & justify	assess methods: - ECR, paid BF, paid devlpt
E (2016.Fall #27)	actual vs expected: - claim count emergence	actual vs expected: - identify limitation
E (2016.Spring #24)	actual vs expected: - rptd claim emergence	actual vs expected: - actuary's reactions
E (2016.Spring #25)	identify scenario: - explains difference	identify scenario: - explains difference
E (2015.Fall #19)	impact/solution: - long development pattern	impact/solution: - tort reform	impact/solution: - higher deductibles	impact/solution: - faster claims processing
E (2015.Fall #22)
E (2015.Fall #25)
E (2014.Fall #19)
E (2014.Fall #22)
E (2014.Fall #24)
E (2014.Spring #17)
E (2014.Spring #22)
E (2013.Fall #18)
E (2013.Fall #24)
E (2013.Spring #21)
E (2013.Spring #22)
E (2013.Spring #26)

¹ See Friedland04.Meetings for potential questions.