Friedland13.BerqSherm

Reading: Friedland, J.F., Estimating Unpaid Claims Using Basic Techniques, Casualty Actuarial Society, Third Version, July 2010. The Appendices are excluded.

Chapter 13: Berquist-Sherman Methods

Pop Quiz

• What are the best 3 diagnostic triangles to look at for evidence of changes in case reserve adequacy. (Hint: See Chapter 6 (Diagnostics) - Changes in Case Reserve Adequacy)
• What are the best 3 diagnostic triangles to look at for evidence of claim settlement rate. [Hint: See Chapter 6 (Diagnostics) - Changes in Settlement Rate)
• BONUS: For an increase in case reserve adequacy and an increase in claim settlement rate, do the diagnostics show increases or decreases down columns?

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BattleTable

Based on past exams, the main things you need to know (in rough order of importance) are:

• reported Berquist-Sherman method - calculate ultimate / unpaid / IBNR
• paid Berquist-Sherman method - calculate ultimate / unpaid / IBNR

reference	part (a)	part (b)	part (c)	part (d)
E (2019.Fall #21)	reported BS: - calc unpaid
E (2019.Spring #14)	accuracy of paid devlpt: - evaluate
E (2019.Spring #22)	reported BS: - calc ultimate
E (2018.Spring #21)
E (2017.Fall #24)	reported BS: - calc IBNR	alternate method: - propose & justify
E (2017.Spring #22)	paid BS - claim count adjustment
E (2016.Fall #23)	reported BS, BF - calc unpaid
E (2016.Spring #20)	paid BS - calc ultimate
E (2016.Spring #21)	Friedland06.Diagnostics	ultimate: - suggest method
E (2015.Fall #21)	paid BS - disposal rate	paid BS - distortion
E (2015.Spring #22)	impact: - settlement rate change	response: - to settlement rate change	related methods: - rptd B-S, rptd devlpt
E (2015.Spring #23)	evaluate methods: - paid & rptd devlpt	adjustment to method: - propose & justify
E (2014.Fall #20)	reported BS, paid BS - calc ultimate
E (2014.Spring #18)	ultimate: - select & apply 2 methods
E (2013.Fall #6)	reported BS: - calc ultimate 1
E (2013.Fall #21)	paid BS - calc ultimate
E (2013.Fall #23)	operational change: - explain	investigating the change: - questions for clms mgmt 2	diagnostics: - to check results 3
E (2013.Spring #23)	reported BS: - adjust rptd triangle	compare IBNR: adjusted vs unadjusted

¹ This question requires knowledge of pricing. You may need to come back to it later if you haven't covered the pricing material yet.

² See Chapter 4 - Meetings for potential questions.

³ Review Chapter 6 - Diagnostics but note that valid answers can include diagnostics other than those specifically discussed in chapter 6.

POP QUIZ ANSWERS

• To detect changes in case reserve adequacy the best 3 diagnostics to look at are:

→ paid/reported loss, average reported loss, average case O/S loss

• To detect changes in claim settlement rate the best 3 diagnostics to look at are:

→ paid/reported loss, paid/reported counts or average case O/S loss